I’ve always loved exploring coffee stories—not just the flavors but also the journey from farm to cup. Today, I want to share how green coffee bean prices have changed over the last 25 years, what caused the big swings, and what that means for roasters like us.
1. Price History 1999–2024: Rollercoaster Ride
Thanks to historical charts, we can see the full picture:
- In the early 2000s, after the collapse of the International Coffee Agreement (1962–1989), prices crashed—dropping into the $0.40–$0.50 per pound range by 2001 RedditMacrotrends+2Macrotrends+2Macrotrends+2Wikipedia+1Axios+1.
- Through the mid-2000s and 2010s, prices gradually rose into the $1–$1.50 per pound range, while global demand grew.
- In 2019, prices settled around $1.02/lb, then climbed in 2021 to about $2.26/lb, a jump of over 70% MacrotrendsMacrotrends.
- 2022 saw a dip to ~$1.67/lb before surging in 2023–2024 to between $1.96 and $3.26/lb, a nearly 60–65% increase in a year MacrotrendsMacrotrendsMacrotrends.
- In early 2025, as reported by FAO and roaster feedback, green coffee prices reached an all-time high of $4.30 per pound, the highest ever—driven by severe supply issues and speculative trading Wikipedia+3Reddit+3Reddit+3.
2. Why Prices Moved: Key Drivers
a. Collapse of Price Controls
The collapse of the International Coffee Agreement in the early 1990s washed away minimum price support. Prices plunged, leaving many producers below cost of production (~$1.20/lb) Wikipedia.
b. Supply & Weather Shocks
Recent droughts in Brazil—the world’s largest coffee producer—caused harvest drops and quality issues. Heat, fire, and poor rainfall have slashed yields. Vietnam also suffered as farmers switched land to more profitable crops like durian AP News.
c. Rising Global Demand
Coffee consumption has grown in new markets, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia. China’s coffee appetite helped drive robusta prices to multi-decade highs and increased demand overall The Times.
d. Logistics & Regulatory Costs
Higher transportation, packaging, import fees, and compliance with new laws (like the EU deforestation regulation) pushed final green bean prices even higher for roasters and consumers. The AustralianBusiness Insider.
3. Latest Market Snapshot – May 2025
In the US, the Import Price Index for green coffee reached 326.50 in May 2025—a 75% increase over May 2024 (186.70) Charts.
Internationally, the average green coffee export price in 2024 was about $3,994 per ton, which equals roughly $1.81 per pound, a 74–75% rise since 2019. Ethiopia topped the list at $5,370/ton, while Vietnam stayed low at $2,298/ton Green Coffee Market Overview.
4. What It Means for Roasters & Hobbyists
- Cost Pressure: Roasters are paying more for green beans. Specialty roasters reported 80% year-over-year price increases, the largest jump since the 1970s Reddit.
- Consumer Pricing: FAO says about 80% of bean price rises pass through to US consumer prices within 8 months, and 80% in the EU within about a year. But overall retail increases are muted by other costs Reddit.
- Flavorflation: Some retailers may lower bean quality (e.g., using cheaper robusta) or reduce packaging size to manage costs, a trend now called “flavorflation” Business Insider.
5. Looking Ahead: Trends & Forecast
- Climate change is a long-term risk. Research shows that shifting rainfall and higher temperatures are reducing viable coffee-growing zones, especially in Brazil—push towards higher elevations, new varieties, and sustainable practice is needed Wikipedia.
- Global exports grew modestly (~5% from 2023 to 2024), but flat overall. Export value is rising faster than volume. Trade experts estimate green coffee exports will generate ~$29–30B in 2024, and grow further 1–5% annually through 2030s population and coffee lifestyle trends.
